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Case study - boutique condo development sold out during pandemic

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New York City was hit hard by the pandemic.  Hotels are going through foreclosure, office experiences record vacancy, street retails (sometimes block long) are still empty, rental apartment rents dropped 20-30%, and people across all ages are leaving the city.  Everything that you see on TV or on the street is quite bleak.  You wonder if the real estate industry is doomed in NYC.  As a real estate developer, I was born optimistic and here is a bright spot and great example of New York Strong, an 11-story 15-unit boutique condo development in Chelsea that was sold out in less than 12-month during the depth of the pandemic.   Total number of units 15* Sale launched February 2020 Last unit sold January 2021 Average unit size 2,570 SF Average sale PSF $2,320 Average sale price per unit $6M Total sellout (11 units only) $65M Acquisition $4M Estimated construction (soft/hard/financing) $33M Total development cost $37M Profit* $28M Equity multiple (assuming 50% le...

Real estate value-add strategy - Part 1

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  I remember when I first started in real estate, people talk about value-add deals all the time. It all sounds really cool but I was clueless. Well, not exactly, I know you can buy fixer-upper, renovate it and flip for profit. But I wasn’t sure how it works in the apartment business. I spent a couple of months going through value-add deals on TheRealDeal (going back two to three years). The analysis got easier once I passed the 50th deal and when I hit the 100th deal, I think I figured it out! By the way, that’s another topic I can hardly find any good articles on the web. Maybe it’s too simple, no one bothers to write it up. Here is what I came up with and hope it can help someone having the same question like I did. In a nutshell, you find a building with units that can be renovated to achieve higher rents and/or enlarged using available air rights to generate additional income. Once renovation or enlargement completes and units are leased up, you will refinance the b...

What self-driving cars mean to real estate industry

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Self-driving vehicles are coming sooner than you think.  Imagine you can just hop on the car, enter an address on your phone and the car will take care of the rest.  Well, that might become true very soon.  Tesla has offered electric vehicles with semi-autonomous Autopilot feature for a few years now.   Waymo opened its ridesharing program Waymo One using autonomous cars to the general public in Phoenix last October.  Driverless cars from Nuro are already on the road as delivery vehicles in the Bay area starting last December.  As it gradually turns into an inevitable reality to our life, I cannot stop thinking what all these mean to the real estate industry.    My thoughts took me back to the first class of Commercial Real Estate taught by Professor David Geltner at MIT.  The classic real estate theory about urban areas is mainly based on the Monocentric City model.  The model explains that any real estate value is the sum of three c...

Public market or private deals

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  As vaccines continue to roll out across the country, a few friends (some overseas) want to get ahead of the recovery and invest in the US real estate. They are reluctant to own real properties due to “hassles” associated with property management. So they ask if it makes sense to invest in REIT stocks on the public market. It’s a tough question, because it is not a simple Yes or No question and there aren't any right or wrong answers, plus it depends a lot on the investor's 1) risk appetite, 2) expectation on the returns, and 3) investment horizons. I just want to share some of my thought process on real estate investment through the public or private market. Typically any real estate investment has two return components: income and capital appreciation. Total Return = Income + Capital Appreciation In the public market, the income component is the dividend and the capital appreciation component is the stock price increase. In private deals, the income is the net operating inco...